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Articles
Friday, December 6, 2024 by Mr Schmid|Comment closed
within category TopDown View 2025,Economic Growth,Reshoring,Monetary Policy,Polarization,Wealth creation,GDP,Inflation,Energy,Defense,Technology,Communication
All along 2024, a few economic and societal narratives dominated markets. Key narratives evolved around:

Shift from Demand to Supply-Driven Dynamics: > reshoring,
Inflation and Monetary Policy: > budget and fiscal constraints,
Geopolitical and Regional Divergences: > uneven economi…
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Tuesday, December 3, 2024 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category MS,E*Trade,Compliance,Regulatory
The Wealth Management Division of MS is under fire! The bank’s cornerstone group, which is generating close to half of the group’s overall revenue is short of competent people in compliance and regulatory.
According to a report by WSJ, due to the shortage of competences and people, critical compl…
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Thursday, November 28, 2024 by Mr Schmid|Comment closed
within category Gold,Eastern European Countries,Central Banks,China,Russia,USA,Turkey,Poland,Czech
The World’s Biggest Buyers of Gold Are Now Among East European Central Banks
In an effort to reduce volatility, to diversify their bank reserves, to hedge against fiat currencies, and to assume their independence Central Banks in Eastern European Countries are among the world’s biggest buyers of G…
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Friday, November 15, 2024 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Deregulation,Pharma,Tesla,Cybersecurity,Coin,Energy
Since the election, the broad-based S&P 500 broke through 6,000, gaining roughly 4% since November 5. Bitcoin—the largest cryptocurrency by market cap—jumped to a new all-time high above 92,000. And a range of other investments have seen noticeable short-term movements too.
Let’s have a closer loo…
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Thursday, November 14, 2024 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category GOP,Inflation,Market risk,Lower Growth,High Valuation,CBDC,Agribusiness
Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory became evident a few weeks ago. On the back of a more liberal, less regulated market environment, markets have advanced further. However, rich valuations, lofty earnings targets, and risks around CB policy timing should give investors some concerns.
Key Takeaw…
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Thursday, November 14, 2024 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Saudi Arabia,Petro dollar,The Line,Trojena,Neom,World Cup 2034,Asian Winter Games in 2029
Headlines say that Saudi Arabia will prioritize the creation of sports facilities and scale back the development of NEOM whose costs have ballooned recently without making significant achievements.
The full achievement of the city Neom, a planned cross-border city, is hugely questioned and probab…
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Monday, November 4, 2024 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Manufacturing reshoring,GDP Growth,Manufacturing facilities,Pharmaceuticals,Semiconductors,Artificial Intelligence,AI,IIoT,Robotics and automation,Spain,Portugal,Inditex
According to research conducted by Morgan Stanley, bringing manufacturing back to Developed Markets is a +$15, trillion opportunity for Europe and the United States.
Solely for the US economy, the value of the estimated investments and related benefits could add a whopping $10 trillion. This will…
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Friday, November 1, 2024 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Interest rates,Inflaton rate,Trade war,China,Stock market valuation,Economic slowdown,Lacking outlook
While the stock market powers ahead with new daily heights, backed by a boost from improving odds of a Republican win, the bond market is sending a different message and the market does overlook the fact!
Lower growth, potential for higher rates, and lingering inflation
The nominal 10-year Tre…
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Saturday, October 26, 2024 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category US Election,Trump Administration,Soft landing,Pro cyclical stance,Trade war
With Central Banks in bifurcation mode, the number of positive performance contributors to the future market performance is expected to be broader. Therefore, it is time to consider small-cap stocks.
Key Takeaways
Based on lower capital costs, economic soft spots such as the manufacturing sect…
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Friday, October 18, 2024 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category China,Economic outlook,Stimilus Program,Interest Rates,GDP,Growth,US,Taiwan
China’s biggest stimulus since the pandemic has caught everybody’s attention and lifted equity valuation, but the considerations for a great deal have quickly evaporated as the government has, by no means, confirmed its real intention, Therefore, we believe that the program will fall short of pulli…
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Friday, September 27, 2024 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category China,Economic outlook,Stimilus Program,Slow Growth,Over supply in Infrastructrue
China's central bank lowered interest rates and injected liquidity into the banking system, backed up by a special loan amounting to trillion yuan ($284.43 billion), to ditch the economic growth path, back to the annual target of roughly 5%.
Yet, according to research obtained, the most recent sti…
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Thursday, September 19, 2024 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category FED,Interest Cycle,China,Slow Growth,Unemploymet
As expected, yesterday, the FED started a new interest cycle, the first cut since the COVID-19 pandemic over four years ago.
With the engineered 50bp cut, the FED recalibrates its monetary policy towards more neutral, thereby sending a conflicting signal to the market about the economy’s path forw…
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Thursday, August 22, 2024 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Inflation,Interest rates,Central Bank Policy,Wage growth,Immigration,Wealth creation,Social welfare
Wages are higher, home prices are higher, and equities are higher. According to a Charles Schwab research analysis, Americans think it takes $2,5 million to be considered wealthy. This is a 13,6 % increase from last year reflecting the emotion-fueled impact of inflation, higher interest rates, and …
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Monday, July 15, 2024 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category US Election,Interest rates,Market outlook
Last Saturday, in an assassination attempt, the former President and present Republican front-runner Donald Trump was wounded. This attack adds a new layer of stress and tumult to an already complex and undecided campaign
Political leaders from all over the world repelled the attack and the high …
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Monday, July 8, 2024 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Europe,French elections,Central Policy,Debt,Economic outlook
French people tend to say that the Germans are naysayers! But this time round, they though thought it was opportune to roll the dice by not confirming the opinion expressed some two weeks ago! Analyses suggest that many disoriented voters weren’t able to imagine the consequences of the next step.
…
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Wednesday, July 3, 2024 by Mr Schmid|Comment closed
within category French elections,Europe,Central Bank policy
Historically, far-right parties have advocated for nationalism, isolationism, and anti-immigrant politics. Today, much of this historical hard approach is part of their history and the present leaders are supported by respected key personalities, aka they are well-intertwined with the economic and …
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Friday, June 28, 2024 by Mr Schmid|Comment closed
within category EU,Europe,Economic outlook,European Union,France,French elections
The president of France, Emmanual Macron, called for a snap election after his party lost voters in favor of the far-rightist-oriented RN. Next Sunday, electorates head to the polls for the first round with the second to follow on July 7. As of now, estimates indicate no absolute majority for RN no…
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Wednesday, June 19, 2024 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Europe,French elections,Defense,Credit
A new political crisis in France, initiated by President Macron's decision to dissolve Parliament and call for early elections, has led to a resurgence of volatility in the credit market and a negative outlook for equities, especially for consumer-sensitive stocks and the defensive sector.
Is th…
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Tuesday, June 18, 2024 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Saudi Arabia,Petro dollar,USD,Chian,Yuan,Coin,CBDC,The Line,Trojena,Sindalah,OXAGON,Neom,Amala
They have done it in the past, but now it is official. Saudi Arabia has confirmed that it will exit for good the petro-dollar system, to which it adhered for the last 80 years. This will allow the country to sell oil in currencies other than the USD. Therefore, Saudi Arabia can sell oil in Chinese …
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Friday, June 14, 2024 by Mr Schmid|Comment closed
within category France,French Banks,Credit,Europe,FrExit
What happened?

Sunday, June 10, 2024, France’s presidential party performed poorly at European elections while the historically Far-Right party Rassemblement National (“RN”) took almost one-third of the votes. In this context, there are three important observations: 

Over the past years, …
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