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Articles
Saturday, June 7, 2025 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category US-China trade war,OPEC; Iran,Economic growth
1️ Global Macroeconomic Context for the Energy Market

Sino-American Geopolitical Tensions:
Trade negotiations between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping have a direct impact on global economic prospects.

A easing of tensions would support economic growth, especially in China, the world's second…
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Saturday, June 7, 2025 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Gold,AUX,Trade war,Limted stock
1️ Impact of Sino-American Trade Negotiations

The dialogue between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping is having a positive effect on metals markets, particularly copper, which benefits from optimism linked to a possible resumption of trade and stabilization of commercial relations.
This dynamic fu…
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Saturday, June 7, 2025 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Top-Down View,US employment market,economic growth,Interest rates,Inflation,Macroeconomic,Labor market
1️ Dynamics of the U.S. Labor Market

In May, the U.S. added 139,000 jobs, exceeding expectations of 126,000, reflecting strong resilience in the American economy.
The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, confirming a solid labor market with a balanced supply and demand for jobs.
Wage gro…
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Thursday, June 5, 2025 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Trade war,Dollar Tree,Dollar General,Walmart,Target,Affluent Market,US Consumers
A growing number of higher-income American shoppers are turning to discount chains like Dollar Tree and Dollar General, a clear signal that economic uncertainty and trade tensions are rippling across the lower-end of affluent consumer segments once considered immune to frugality.
As U.S. trade pol…
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Monday, June 2, 2025 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Monetary Policy,Central Bank,Inflation,USA,Europe,China,Inflation,Interest rates
Inflation and Monetary Policy in Europe:
Inflation trends diverge significantly between France and Germany. In France, consumer prices continue to slow down, which could ease pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB). Conversely, in Germany, inflation appears to be accelerating, complicating the…
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Monday, June 2, 2025 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Precious Metals,Gold,Trade-war
Industrial Metals:
Copper stands out this week with remarkable strength, indicating sustained demand or a limited supply of this key metal for the construction and infrastructure sectors. In contrast, other industrial metals have generally declined, reflecting some caution in the market amid uncer…
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Monday, June 2, 2025 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Energy Market,Petroleum,Oil
Current Context:
Oil prices have experienced significant volatility this week, moving in an environment marked by several conflicting factors influencing supply and demand dynamics.
Supply:

The OPEC+ cartel could decide to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day at its upcoming meeting,…
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Wednesday, May 28, 2025 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Macroeconomic Outlook,Trade War Rhetoric,USTB,rising inflation,rising interest rates,fiscal and political risk premium,higher volatility
🧭 Macroeconomic Outlook – June 2025
“Storm Clouds Return: Trade Tensions, Fiscal Uncertainty, and Bond Market Strain”

🔥 1. Trade War Rhetoric Resurfaces
Markets had started recovering on hopes of renewed trade talks, but Donald Trump reignited tensions by threatening the EU and Apple with st…
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Wednesday, May 28, 2025 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category TopDown View,Precious Metals,Rising Yields,Trade war EU/US,higher interest rates
🧭 Macroeconomic Impact on Gold & Precious Metals – June 2025

📈 Tailwinds for Gold


Rising Geopolitical and Trade Tensions


Renewed U.S.-EU trade war rhetoric, and tariff threats on Apple, signal a return of global uncertainty.


Historically, such tensions boost safe-haven demand, e…
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Thursday, May 22, 2025 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Macroeconomie,Inflation,Recession,Europe,USA,Trade tension,Bund,Gold,Asia
Some considerations for the present market conditions and interrelated reasons, especially given the current backdrop of market volatility, elevated government debt, and shifting monetary-policy expectations
While U.S. equities have retraced to January levels, a closer look at other asset classes,…
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Monday, May 19, 2025 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Macroeconomie,Inflation,Recession,Europe,USA,Unemployement
Background Context
Since early 2018, the U.S. economy has operated within a complex environment shaped by strong domestic fundamentals, aggressive fiscal stimulus, and ever more pronounced trade tensions. The Trump administration’s tariff policy introduced significant uncertainty into global trade…
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Monday, May 19, 2025 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Energy,Oil,Resources,Inflation,Iran going online
Energy Markets: Oil
Background Context:
Since beginning 2020, global oil markets have been navigating a volatile environment shaped by geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and shifting demand expectations in the wake of the post-pandemic recovery. The balance between OPEC+ production policy…
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Saturday, May 10, 2025 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Energy,Petroleum,Oil,WTI,Brent,Opec,Tradewar
Current Oil Price Context:
Brent and WTI prices have recently increased, supported by hopes for an easing in trade tensions between the United States and China, fueling expectations of increased global demand.


Brent: $63.70 (↑)


WTI: $60.60 (↑)


However, sustained price increases will…
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Saturday, May 3, 2025 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Petroleum,Iran,China,Europe,US Sanctions,Russia,Brent,Geopolitcal escalation,Europe
The oil market dynamics involving U.S. sanctions on Iran, OPEC+ decisions, and global economic trends:
1. U.S. Sanctions on Iran and Their Impact on Oil Prices
Geopolitical Context
Tougher U.S. Sanctions: President Donald Trump threatened renewed sanctions on any country or companies purchasing…
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Monday, April 28, 2025 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Russia,China,Economic slowdown,Ukraine
The Russian Federation, as we know it under Vladimir Putin, is already a dead structure walking. Its collapse is no longer a matter of if, but when.
With over 790,000 military casualties reported since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine—figures comparable to Soviet losses in the entire Afghani…
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Friday, April 11, 2025 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Trade Sanctions,US Administration,Inflation,Recession,Piketty,Garelli,US Consumers
It's been a very violent start to Q2 for the financial markets. The major indices fell heavily, following Donald Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs well above expectations. The bar minimum is now at 10%, but some countries experience punitive sanctions well beyond any good. In the case of C…
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Monday, March 10, 2025 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Economic Growth,Reshoring,Inflation,Monetary Policy,Polarization,Wealth destruction,GDP,Inflation,Energy,Defense,Technology,Communication,Europe,Trump Trade
Donald Trump's election had aroused great enthusiasm with an economic program favoring the supply economy (aka onshorin) which is expected to lead to creative destruction, deregulation, tax cuts and stimulation of private investment.
Aiming at a strong economy and to create jobs, multiple initia…
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Wednesday, February 26, 2025 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Defense,Rheinmetall,Aerospace & Defense,BAES,LDOF,RHMG,BAB,Saab
The recent change in the attitude of the US Administration under President Trump has highlighted, once again, the fundamental construct of the EU, particularly the absence of a coordinated and sustainable approach to mandatory sovereign tasks such as defense, taxes, social security, and health care…
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Thursday, February 6, 2025 by Christoph Schmid|Comment closed
within category Premium,XAU,Bullion,BOE,Market distortion,LBMA,Comex,Central Bank Policies,Trump Administration,Tariff,Trade War
Bullions in the UK are trading at a premium to the wider market – the fact is that there is a substantial outflow of Gold from the UK towards the US. It is said that physical gold, with spot deliveries, trades at a premium of more than $5 an ounce, which is about 0.21% below the market price. Histo…
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Friday, December 6, 2024 by Mr Schmid|Comment closed
within category TopDown View 2025,Economic Growth,Reshoring,Monetary Policy,Polarization,Wealth creation,GDP,Inflation,Energy,Defense,Technology,Communication
All along 2024, a few economic and societal narratives dominated markets. Key narratives evolved around:

Shift from Demand to Supply-Driven Dynamics: > reshoring,
Inflation and Monetary Policy: > budget and fiscal constraints,
Geopolitical and Regional Divergences: > uneven economi…
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