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Friday, November 15, 2024 by Christoph Schmid|Comment 0
within category Deregulation,Pharma,Tesla,Cybersecurity,Coin,Energy

Since the election, the broad-based S&P 500 broke through 6,000, gaining roughly 4% since November 5. Bitcoin—the largest cryptocurrency by market cap—jumped to a new all-time high above 92,000. And a range of other investments have seen noticeable short-term movements too.

Let’s have a closer look at post-election trends

Several short-term trends have developed in recent weeks. The election results appear to have caused a large market adjustment beginning on November 5, ranging from sector rotation (into consumer, financials, and energy), small-cap outperformance, higher equity valuations, lower implied volatility, a stronger dollar, and higher real yields.

While sectors have been advancing, there is a common denominator to the move. The market played deregulation to unfold more than anything else. Typically, under this scenario, Cybersecurity has soared (Fortinet +21.2% since election day) because less deregulation in tech will mean more cyber threats, Tesla gained +23.4% on the same period, as it should benefit a lot from lower regulatory impediments in its endeavor towards autonomous driving, and midstream oil & gas Cheniere Energy gained +9.7% as oil & gas deregulation should increase LNG production.

Things are changing in Washington. There is the much-commented appointment of Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to the Department of Government Efficiency, Robert F. Kennedy JR is said to look very closely at the FAD and the pharmaceutical industry, and other nominations point towards similar radical measures, aka new tariffs. Thus, stocks linked to higher tariffs, especially in upstream sectors like steelmaking, benefitted less from the Trump election so far (Steel Dynamics +1.6%), or rather, they first soared after the election results and then consolidated. Defense stocks have been globally flat since election day, as investors have started to wonder if government efficiency would not hurt them a bit as well.

The market is somehow anticipating the administration to implement more relaxed regulations and efforts to onshore various industry sectors. The long-term economic effects of deregulation will vary significantly depending on the context of the economy going forward.

On the positive side, deregulation will result in increased competition, higher efficiency, and reduced administrative processes, which all are expected to stimulate consumer benefits and ultimately generate economic growth.

On the negative side, with less rigid regulations, risk-taking will be increased, aka market failures, are expected to increase, which in turn is expected to impact perils in social and environmental, which in turn will increase economic inequality and short-term instability.

With the Trump Administration 2.0 better prepared to govern, a rapid pace of deregulation and market freedom tailored to each sector can be expected. Only the future will tell us the real benefit.

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