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Inflation and Monetary Policy in Europe:
Inflation trends diverge significantly between France and Germany. In France, consumer prices continue to slow down, which could ease pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB). Conversely, in Germany, inflation appears to be accelerating, complicating the ECB’s decision-making ahead of its upcoming meeting. This divergence creates a delicate situation, as the ECB must balance supporting growth in countries with moderate inflation while curbing inflation where it is rising sharply.

Economic and Financial Situation in the United States:
Despite an uncertain economic environment, U.S. consumer spending remains robust, supporting the economy. Inflation measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for April met expectations, indicating a degree of price stability.

On the bond market, yields on U.S. Treasury securities show signs of tension: the short-term (10-year) yield has fallen below 4.5%, while the long-term (30-year) yield remains close to 5%. This tension reflects investor caution regarding economic prospects and monetary policy decisions.

Political Context and Market Impact:
Political tensions remain palpable. Donald Trump summoned the Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, to criticize what he perceives as an overly restrictive monetary policy, especially the maintenance of high interest rates. Additionally, Trump has criticized China for dragging its feet in trade negotiations, adding further pressure on Sino-American trade relations.

Outlook:
Markets are in a wait-and-see mode, oscillating between moderate optimism driven by solid consumption and concerns over divergent inflation in Europe and geopolitical tensions. The ECB will need to navigate cautiously at its next meeting, while the Fed faces political pressure and heightened investor vigilance. Investors will need to closely monitor macroeconomic data, monetary policies, and trade negotiations to adjust their strategies accordingly.

In summary, the global macroeconomic context remains complex with multiple challenges: divergent inflation in Europe, solid but uncertain consumption in the U.S., strained bond markets, and political tensions weighing on economic confidence.