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Current Context:
Oil prices have experienced significant volatility this week, moving in an environment marked by several conflicting factors influencing supply and demand dynamics.

Supply:

• The OPEC+ cartel could decide to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day at its upcoming meeting, a measure already anticipated by the markets.
• There are even rumors of a possible increase exceeding this amount, which puts downward pressure on prices.

Demand:

• Demand is being restrained by growing concerns about potential stagflation in the United States, which combines economic stagnation with high inflation.
• The strength of the US dollar also weighs on demand expectations, making oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Geopolitical Factors:

• Sino-American trade tensions are negatively impacting the market. Statements by Donald Trump in early April, accusing China of delaying negotiations, have amplified worries about global economic growth.
• These tensions contribute to an uncertain climate, intensifying downward price movements.

Price Impact:

• Brent crude, the global benchmark, has fallen below $63 USD, marking a decline of more than 10% since early April.
• This decrease reflects the market’s incorporation of higher supply and weakened demand.

Outlook:

• In the short term, the trend appears to be either a decline or stagnation in oil prices as long as economic and geopolitical uncertainties persist.
• Supply could remain strong or even increase if OPEC+ confirms a production hike.
• Demand may stay moderate due to concerns about global economic growth and the strength of the dollar.
• Investors will need to closely monitor OPEC+ decisions and developments in Sino-American trade negotiations to better anticipate future movements.

Summary:
The oil market is currently facing a delicate balance between rising supply and uncertain demand within a tense geopolitical context, resulting in high volatility and downward pressure on prices.