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1️ Global Macroeconomic Context for the Energy Market

• Sino-American Geopolitical Tensions:
  Trade negotiations between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping have a direct impact on global economic prospects.
• A easing of tensions would support economic growth, especially in China, the world's second-largest oil consumer after the United States.
• Stronger growth boosts energy demand, and therefore oil demand.
• Impact on Global Demand:
• The hope of a trade agreement revives expectations for global GDP growth.
• Oil demand is closely correlated with economic health (transportation, industry, energy production).

2️ Supply: OPEC+ Policy

• Planned Production Increase:
• OPEC+ maintains its plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, reflecting a desire to capture increased demand.
• This limits price increases by adding more supply to the market.
• Fragile Balance:
• Too much production increase could cause prices to fall.
• Too little production would keep price pressure high but risks shortages.

3️ Geopolitical Uncertainties

• Iran and Nuclear Deal:
• If an agreement is reached, sanctions on Iran could be lifted, allowing the country to export more oil.
• This would increase global supply and put downward pressure on prices.
• Risk of Escalation:
• Conversely, a failure could strengthen sanctions, restrict supply, and push prices higher.

4️ Price Evolution

• Recent Price Increase:
• Brent +4.2%, WTI +4% over the week, signaling cautious optimism.
• These movements reflect a combination of expectations for economic recovery and cautious supply management by OPEC+.
• Still High Volatility:
• The market remains sensitive to every news item about trade negotiations, OPEC+ decisions, and geopolitical developments (Iran, Middle East).

5️ Overall Analysis and Outlook

Conclusion

• The oil market is in a phase of unstable equilibrium between a slight increase in supply and demand conditioned by the evolution of global trade relations.
• The recent price rise reflects cautious optimism about global growth, but the context remains fragile and volatile.
• For investors, it is important to monitor:
• Progress in Sino-American trade negotiations,
• OPEC+ production decisions,
• Developments in the Iranian nuclear dossier.
• An investment strategy in oil must be flexible, as geopolitical and macroeconomic factors can quickly reverse trends.