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The macro sector encompasses the broad dynamics that influence financial markets on a large scale, including equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities. It is closely linked to monetary policy, economic cycles, banking credit, and geopolitical events. Understanding this sector allows investors to anticipate trends and strategically position their portfolios.

Current Economic Environment

• Return of volatility in equity markets: Despite a generally favorable context (rising liquidity and encouraging earnings prospects), volatility resurfaced this week, not due to direct trade tensions, but because of credit risks from U.S. regional banks, reminiscent of the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank collapse.

• No imminent recession: Available macroeconomic indicators show no signs of a major economic contraction. Any market dip should therefore be seen as an opportunity to strengthen high-quality equity positions.

• Falling bond yields: U.S. yields continue to decline, supported by expectations of monetary easing amid concerns over the labor market. The 2-year yield has fallen below 3.50%, creating an attractive environment for fixed-income allocation and diversification.

Investment Recommendation

Summary Opinion: Strengthen / Selective. Investors should use the volatility to acquire or reinforce positions in quality equities, while monitoring sectors exposed to banking credit risk.

Why invest in this macro context?

1. Opportunity in volatility: Temporary corrections provide attractive entry points for high-quality stocks.

2. Relative economic stability: The absence of imminent recession signals supports medium-term performance in equities and bonds.

3. Favorable bond environment: Low short-term rates allow for optimizing portfolio duration and securing stable fixed-income returns.

4. Strategic diversification: A balanced allocation across equities, bonds, and alternative assets protects against sudden swings while capturing structural growth.

Risks to monitor:

• Regional credit crises that could spread to other parts of the banking system;

• High short-term equity market volatility;

• Unexpected geopolitical or monetary shocks;

• Inflationary pressures and Fed policy adjustments.

Tactical Positioning:

• Horizon: Medium-term (6–12 months) to take advantage of volatility phases and reinforce equity positions;

• Allocation: Focus on high-quality equities, diversify with short- and medium-term bonds, and remain selective on sectors exposed to banking risk.