Blog: You, us, everyone

The role of Gulf powers in Gaza’s future

The 2025 Gaza peace plan, led by U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, proposes a framework to end the Gaza conflict and lay the foundation for regional stability. The plan has drawn attention from key international actors, but its long-term viability is uncertain due to political, security, and humanitarian challenges.

Current Situation

• Hamas Control: Hamas retains security authority in Gaza and has not fully committed to disarmament.
• Palestinian Representation: Minimal participation in negotiations threatens legitimacy.
• Humanitarian Crisis: Aid is insufficient; border openings remain uncertain.
• International Support: Funding, logistics, and stabilization operations are still unclear.

Views of Major Middle Eastern Powers

Saudi Arabia

• Support: Officially endorses the peace plan; emphasizes recognition of the State of Palestine.
• Conditions: Advocates a two-state solution; opposes West Bank annexation.
• Implication: Political weight is strong, but normalization with Israel depends on concrete Palestinian sovereignty.

United Arab Emirates (UAE)

• Support: Welcomed ceasefire and praised U.S. facilitation.
• Conditions: Participation contingent on viable Palestinian state and effective humanitarian aid.
• Implication: UAE influence may pressure Israel on West Bank annexation, aligning with Arab consensus.

Qatar

• Support: Strong advocate; active mediator between Israel and Hamas.
• Conditions: Hamas must relinquish Gaza control and disarm; aid should follow structured multilateral frameworks.
• Implication: Qatar is central for ceasefire stability and humanitarian delivery.

The Role of Gulf Powers in Gaza’s Future

Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar play three complementary roles in the 2025 Gaza peace plan:

1. Political Influence

1. Saudi Arabia links normalization with Israel to tangible Palestinian sovereignty and the two-state solution.
2. UAE pressures Israel to halt West Bank annexation while supporting humanitarian measures.
3. Qatar leverages its mediation with Hamas to ensure cooperation with the peace plan.

2. Facilitation and Mediation

1. Qatar acts as an intermediary between Israel and Hamas, facilitating negotiations and coordinating aid distribution.
2. Gulf states collectively encourage compromise, helping prevent unilateral actions that could derail the plan.

3. Support for Reconstruction and Humanitarian Efforts

1. Gulf countries are potential contributors to the $67–70 billion reconstruction effort.
2. They help coordinate international funding, oversee aid delivery, and monitor progress on security stabilization.

Implication:
 The survival of the Gaza peace plan is heavily dependent on these powers. Their continued engagement may tip the balance toward conditional survival or incremental progress, whereas a withdrawal or lack of commitment could accelerate the plan’s collapse.

Gaza Reconstruction

💰 Estimated Costs

• UN estimates $70 billion needed for reconstruction and security.
• Palestinian Authority proposed $67 billion five-year plan: emergency relief, stabilization, long-term development.

🌍 Funding Sources

• European nations, U.S., Canada, and Arab states expected to contribute.
• Combination of grants, aid, and loans coordinated via UN and Palestinian Authority.
• International summit in Egypt scheduled November 2025 to mobilize funds.

🛡️ Oversight & Security

• Managed by International Transitional Authority for Gaza (ITAG), supported by Egypt-led multinational peacekeeping force.
• Countries like Turkey, Indonesia, Azerbaijan will maintain security, train new Palestinian police, supervise Hamas disarmament.
• UK provides strategic advisory support for unified Palestinian state-building.

⚠️ Challenges

• Hamas maintains partial control; no full disarmament.
• Governance transition uncertain; factional disputes persist.
• Rafah border partly closed; humanitarian aid delivery disrupted.

🧱 Outlook

• Reconstruction requires unprecedented international coordination, inclusive governance, and durable security.
• Success hinges on mobilizing funding, political cooperation, and compliance from Hamas.
• Without these, efforts may remain fragmented and insufficient.

Key Challenges for the Peace Plan

• Security compliance by Hamas
• Legitimacy and representation of Palestinians
• Funding and stabilization logistics
• Persistent humanitarian pressures

Potential Scenarios

1. Conditional Survival: Gulf support + international aid can sustain the plan.
2. Stalemate or Collapse: Hamas resistance, West Bank annexation, or funding gaps could derail it.
3. Incremental Progress: Partial implementation could set stage for long-term negotiations and eventual Palestinian state-building.

Conclusion

Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar have expressed conditional support for the Gaza peace plan. The plan’s viability depends on political agreements, security enforcement, humanitarian delivery, and reconstruction. Engagement from Gulf states and international actors will be pivotal in determining whether the peace plan evolves into a sustainable framework or remains a fragile diplomatic initiative.