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Article
Monday, June 3, 2013 by Christoph.Schmid|Comment 0
within category Technology,Industry,Energy,European Capex Winners,Emerging Market Exposure,Smartphones and Tablets

 

What are the drivers and indicators of growth in the consumer electronics sector?

Growth drivers:
  • Personal disposable income,
  • Consumer confidence,
  • Consumer spending,
  • Innovation,
  • Consumer trends.
      

Innovation:
  • Digital: TV, HDTV, camera, etc. 
  • NFC: WLAN, Ethernet, Bluetooth, GPS, etc. 
  • Mobile:  Smartphones, Tablets, eBooks, Netbooks, etc. 
  • Gaming: Wii, etc. 
  • Software: Mac, Windows, Storage, etc. 

Consumer trends:
  • Convergence: fixed and mobile (internet and phone) 
  • SoLoMo:  development of mobile-centric version of business publicity and customer loyalty programs 
  • Social media: Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter, online gaming 

Growth indicators to watch:
  • Consumer confidence/consumer spending 
  • CAPEX and R&D budget allocations 
  • Unit shipments for mobiles and smartphones 
  • New releases of electronic equipment and upgrades 
  • Early cyclical growth rates  (exports from South Korea) 

Product replacement cycles:
  • Mobile: (Smartphones, Tablets, Netbooks, etc): 6 - 18 months 
  • Software: 1 to 3 years 
  • PCs: 2 - 4 years 
  • TV/HiFi: 5 – 7 years 
In application: 
Which risk profile are concerned? Which investment themes are exposed most? Which is the meaning for my portfolio? 

  1. Risk profile: all profiles are concerned, from the very conservative to the very dynamic ones 
  2. Investment themes: In particular these ratios apply most to: Technology, Industry, Energy, European Capex Winners, Emerging Market Exposure as well as Smartphones and Tablets 
  3. Impact to my portfolio: Price fluctuations (positive and negative ones) 

Other elements to consider: 
  • Factory activity 
  • Jobless claims 
  • Housing data 
  • Imports/Exports 
  • Share of Gross domestic expenditure on R&D 
  • Broadband penetration rate  
  • Availability of venture capital 
  • Patent applications 
  • Human resources, including schools educating science and technology graduates 


Abbreviations used:
NFC – Near Field Communication
SoLoMo - Social-local-mobile

 
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